Why did dinosaurs die? Many theories exist, including environmental change, their own inability to adapt, cataclysms, lack of self defence ... and if you go to the childrens' section of the Natural History Museum in London, you might even see the hypotheses that they overate themselves to death at picnics.
Actually, the truth is that dinosaurs didn't die. Thats right. They just stopped being dinosaurs. Or to be more accurate, some individual dinosaurs died, but the rest just became other animals over a few (hundred) generations. Mostly they became smaller, and more adept at surviving in the new conditions, as the Jurassic age gave way to the Creataceous age. Because by the end of that era, it just didn't pay to be a dinosaur anymore.
So... is broadcasting a dinosaur whose time has come? And if so, what is the new animal it needs to morph into?
First things first, yes, there is a BIG change. A cataclysm? Sounds negative, and instantaneous. Neither may be true. It's cataclysmic if you're locked into an unchangable model or technology (just invested your entire 100 million in a new factory to supply HD-DVD discs). But otherwise, its mostly good news, especially as consumers. And yes, it's not an overnight change. This is why we argue about whether it's happening at all or not. It's not easy to spot, because it's gradual. But yes as sure as the ice ages or more recently, global warming. And just as you can't stand by the seashore and watch the water level rise, you can't see the changes in the broadcast environment. But just as surely, they're changing.
The other important thing to remember that this is not a simple zero sum game. Just because it's bad for some incumbents doesn't mean every new player coming along will pick up the spoils. The idea that this is Darwinian is not new. And Darwinian evolution isn't prescriptive. It's more like every generation includes thousands of tiny mutations and a miniscule percentage of them survive and flourish and become the new order. In much the same way, old and new companies keep throwing thousands of ideas into the market, and the successful ones are the ones that find some uptake and whose backers are able to recognize this and grow bigger quicker. What all this means therefore is that the fact that the older model (the Dinosaur) is going to die is clear, but it's not clear which particular mutant will replace it. Sometimes it boils down to a simple matter of money, technology, marketing (Blu-Ray vs HDDVD) but at other times its more subtle and driven by much less predictable or manageable factors (e.g. social networking). Of course, simplicity, and low cost are always going to work better.
So, back to broadcasting. Which depends on a) a specific device b) a specific set of delivery mechanisms c) a specific operating model and d) a specific set of standards & processes, e) typically consumed in specific user patterns. Built into the model are some clear constraints, beyond the obvious price performance.
Lets remind ourselves of a few things that go on behind the TV screen. First the device. The TV as a device used to be a CRT, now is plasma or LCD, it used to work off an antenna, now it relies also on a Set Top Box. It used to be an dumb device, now the set top box makes a lot of decisions. It used to have a power socket and an antenna input. Now, the back of a TV looks like the control panel of Starship Enteprise. There's nothing you can't plug into your TV - camera, computer, phone, music system, washing machine, home-server, DVD player... okay I admit, I threw in the washing machine to see if you were paying attention! But you get the drift. The point is, it isn't a device thats just used by broadcast content.
Similarly and without boring you to death, we can easily see that the delivery mechanism has changed (from analog, terrestrial to satellite and cable to IP over copper and fibre); the operating model of scheduled, one-size fits many, expensive-to-make content that has very little flexibility and is largely hit & miss - will (slowly) yield ground to personalizable, made to order, unscheduled, interactive, place shifted, fast-cycle-time content that can react faster to user behaviour. Currently for some broadcasters this it takes months from a show going out to being able to change it based on poor feedback. Yes you can swap it out for another show, but what if you bet a few million on it being the summer hit?
Importantly, the existing broadcast model bases itself on certain patterns of societal behaviour. This is the knowledge that goes into scheduling and into regulations. Children's programs air at specific times. F words are allowed after 10. Housewives watch TV in the afternoons. But as more diverse cultures start to proliferate and stereotypical behaviour patterns fade away (this is a whole discussion by itself - one that we've had Convergence Conversations evenings about!) it takes a little bit more away from the broadcast model.
The other aspect of the broadcast model is the underlying economic assumptions. Broadcast, especially satellite or digital terrestrial works on scale economics. Which means it's the best model for sending the same content to a few million people (live sports, news, big shows), but terrible at serving niche markets. The way existing broadcasting models serve niche markets is to choose an obscure time and/or an unused frequency and convince people to tune in at the time. Caravan Channel on Information TV does good business, but it's only on once a week in a half hour slot. What if you're in your caravan at the time?
So, it becomes apparent that as we enter a new age, the conditions under which broadcasting has survived and grown into the behemoths we see today are changing. As the Jurassic age gave way to the Cretaceous, a Satellite Era is giving way to a Convergence Era. Does this mean broadcasting is dying? No, but some broadcasters will suffer mortal wounds. The ones who pin their hopes on channels, the old TV device, the historical viewing behaviour and the old operating model will go first. But most broadcasters will simply morph into convergent media businesses. The shape of convergent media isn't clear though. With the success of Kate Modern, some signs may be visible. Likewise, Facebook comes up in living room conversations and office cooler banter more often than East Enders does, among some sections of the population. But the mutation, as they say, has just begun.
